A recent study published in The Lancet Planetary Health journal, suggests that reducing consumption of processed meat by approximately one-third could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes in the US over 10 years. It would also lead to tens of thousands of fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer. 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00118-9
The researchers used data from a national health survey done by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to create a simulated, representative sample of the US adult population -this is called a microsimulation. This microsimulation was the first to estimate the effects of reducing processed meat and unprocessed red meat consumption on a number of health conditions in the US adult population.
Previous research has suggested that red meat, even that which is unprocessed, may contribute to chronic disease risk, but the evidence has been limited and unclear. A more forceful and clearer negative association has been found regarding people eating a significant amount of processed meats in their diet.
While there have been numerous studies that have identified a connection between high levels of processed meat consumption and chronic disease, studies have not been clear about specific associations with different health conditions. This study attempts to define potential risks for a number of different health outcomes.
The study also attempts to estimate how changes in meat consumption affect adults’ risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer and death. These are the major causes of death in the US population overall. This study also attempts to identify contribution to risks from age, sex, income and ethnicity.
Reducing consumption of both processed and unprocessed meats by 30 per cent is estimated would result in over 1 million fewer diabetes cases, over 375,000 fewer cardiovascular disease cases and 84,000 fewer colorectal cancer cases per year.
Cutting unprocessed red meat intake alone by 30 per cent – just cutting back by approximately one less quarter-pound beef burger a week – can result in more than 730,000 fewer diabetes cases. It also may lead to 290,000 fewer cardiovascular disease cases and 32,200 fewer colorectal cancer cases.
Less is known about the effect of eating natural unprocessed red meat on chronic disease risk. One of the study’s authors, Professor L. Jaacks, of Global Health and Nutrition at the University of Edinburgh, says “Cutting consumption of meat has been recommended by national and international organisations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including the Climate Change Committee here in the UK and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC. Our research finds that these changes in diets could also have significant health benefits in the US, and so this is a clear win-win for people and the planet.”
The two most common causes of death in the USA are cardiovascular disease and cancer.
1 A diet high in processed meats has been associated in multiple studies with increased risk of cardiovascular disease;2, 3, 4, 5 type 2 diabetes;5, 6, 7, 8 and some cancers, especially colorectal cancer.9, 10. The association of processed meat consumption with these chronic diseases is thought to be due to high nitrites, nitrates, saturated fat and sodium .11, 12, 13, 14 Despite this knowledge the intake of processed meat in the U.S. has not been reduced over the past 20 years.16 A 2021 study focused on meat intake.25, 26, 27. They attempted to see what the effects might be of reducing meat consumption overall. Their results suggested that a 50% reduction in meat and dairy replaced by fruit, vegetables, and cereals could result in nearly 37,000 fewer deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, and cancer per year in the UK.31 Another study evaluated the effects specifically related to processed meat consumption on colorectal cancer risk and incidence.32 They estimated that a 5% reduction in processed meat consumption could result in greater than 1,100 fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer across ten European countries. 32
Another study on changes in meat and health outcomes in the United States estimated that the net reduction in caloric intake after a 25% increase in the price of meat could result in a reduction in the prevalence of obesity by 2030 and it would become similar to what it was in the year 2015. 27 Another study modelled the effects of changing from the standard American diet which is too high in red meat, refined grains accompanied by low consumption of fruits, vegetables, peas, beans, and whole grains, to a healthy alternative diet severely reducing all processed meat and replacing them with beans and peas could reduce heart disease by 21%, type 2 diabetes by 20%, and colorectal cancer by 11% in the US.33 These studies estimate that reducing processed meat consumption by 30% in the USA could prevent approximately 350,000 occurrences of type 2 diabetes, 92,500 occurrences of cardiovascular disease, 53,000 occurrences of colorectal cancer, and 16,700 all-cause deaths.
There have been different definitions of processed meat used in various studies and therefore, more research is needed to understand the health effects of eating different types of processed meat. The health effects of processed meats are also influenced by how the meat is processed and cooked. Moderate unprocessed red meat consumption has not been consistently associated with disease risk in those who otherwise engage in healthy dietary patterns, such as the well-known and established Mediterranean dietary which is characterized by a higher intake of fruits vegetables and whole grains, nuts and seeds compared to the average American’s diet.17, 18, 19 A simulated population of Americans who did not have these healthy dietary patterns seemed to be more at risk by eating processed meats. Their diets contained higher intakes of refined grains and added sugars.
The underlying mechanisms by which meats may impart health risks are not fully understood. It is thought that the association between chronic diseases and processed meat may at least in part be due to high sodium content, nitrites, and nitrates.12, 13 The way in which red meat is prepared also contributes to risk of chronic disease. Cooking red meat at high temperatures by grilling, frying, and barbecuing produces more bioactive chemical compounds which have negative health effects. These have been identified as N-nitroso compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, heterocyclic aromatic amines, and advanced glycation-end products. 15 When meat is cooked at lower temperature for example boiled in stews or by roasting the levels of the production of these compounds may not be significant. Further studies are needed to evaluate the effect of reducing unprocessed red and processed meat intake on micronutrient intake, particularly in vulnerable population subgroups such as those women who are pregnant.
The market share of plant-based meat alternatives increased is a very small fraction of total meat sales in the US. 52 In one controlled trial of 36 participants funded by Beyond Meat found a statistically significant reductions in blood levels of trimethylamine-N-oxide, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and some cancers, especially colorectal cancer, 53
The scientific conclusions of this study are that reductions in processed meat consumption could result in substantial health benefits reducing the incidence of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and death. More research is needed to further investigate the effects of reducing unprocessed red meat consumption.
National Dietary Guidelines for Americans 58 are due to be updated in 2025. It is the opinion of this study’s authors that these guidelines should specifically recommend limiting consumption of processed meats. This recommendation would also be consistent with the current recommendations for cutting down the intake of sodium and saturated fat contained in many processed meats.
